Tesla's sales decline is expected to slow, and investors can breathe a sigh of relief for now.

According to analysts' forecasts, Tesla's global deliveries are expected to be approximately 439,600 vehicles in the third quarter ending in September. Although this will be a decrease of about 5% from the same period last year, it is a significant improvement compared to the 13% decline in the first half of 2025.

“This quarter’s delivery results will be critical for Tesla’s future trajectory,” said Andrew Rocco, equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research. “They have an opportunity to at least show that the legacy business has stabilized.”

To deflect attention from sluggish sales, Tesla is focusing on its new self-driving taxi business, as well as artificial intelligence and robotics. The company is also seeking shareholder support for Musk’s unprecedented compensation plan, which is conditional on him achieving certain growth targets.

Wall Street is generally optimistic, with several analysts recently raising their target share prices and delivery expectations for Tesla. Tesla's stock price soared 33% in September, not only recovering its losses since the beginning of the year but also achieving its best monthly performance since 2025.

Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said at a press conference that Tesla "probably got a strong boost from the summer's car buying frenzy," but the third quarter may still be "a complicated transition period" for Tesla, and he predicted that the company will lose further market share by the end of the year.

Tesla continues to lose sales in Europe, with August sales down 22% year-over-year and new car registrations plummeting 33% in the first eight months of the year.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson downgraded Tesla's stock rating from "hold" to "sell" in mid-September. Although he expects third-quarter deliveries to be better than expected, he warned that sales in the fourth quarter are at risk of decline.

"Tesla and every other electric vehicle maker has pulled out all the stops to maximize sales this quarter," he said. "If Tesla is driving demand through incentives and price increases, the apparently strong delivery figures could be misleading as profit margins could narrow significantly."

"The market is still going to have more questions than usual following this deliveries report," Nelson said.

.